Matchday five of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League is in the books and the 36-team table is starting to take shape.
Paris Saint-Germain are facing an uphill task to qualify for the knockouts after losing to Bayern Munich, Real Madrid are struggling to deliver the performances that won them the title last season, and Manchester City lost a three-goal lead to Feyenoord, which has alarm bells ringing. Meanwhile, Liverpool and Internazionale are flying high as they eye the knockouts.
ESPN writers Gab Marcotti, Alex Kirkland and Julien Laurens reflect on some of the burning questions after five rounds.
Who should be more worried, Man City or Madrid, and why?
Marcotti: I think they’ll both advance to the playoffs. That said, who should be more worried are City, who is more worried are Real Madrid. In fact, I imagine Thursday’s Madrid papers will be filled with tales of manager Carlo Ancelotti fighting for his job.
But it’s definitely City who should be more worried. They have PSG and Juventus, both away, in their next two games (before ending on a relative gimme against Brugge, but then Feyenoord was supposed to be a “gimme” too). The good news is that they control their own destiny and could even make the top eight. The bad news is that they haven’t won in six games (and you wouldn’t be surprised if it’s seven games after the weekend). Oh, and there’s those pesky 115 charges and a verdict expected before Christmas. Things can unravel pretty quickly, big picture.
As for Real Madrid, the injuries are a big mitigating factor and a number of those guys (Rodrygo, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Vinícius Júnior are the main ones) will be back. They have Atalanta away next, which is tough (but, weirdly, Atalanta sometimes go missing entirely). And then they finish with two cupcakes, Salzburg and Brest. Top Eight is out of reach, but playoffs seem pretty darn likely from where I’m sitting.
1:05
Burley: Guardiola will be losing sleep over Man City’s Liverpool trip
Craig Burley says Pep Guardiola will be worried about Manchester City being swept aside by Liverpool in the Premier League this weekend.
Laurens: Neither of them! They have great managers, great players, their injured players (or some of them at least) will come back, and they will also recruit new players in January who will be able to play in the last two matches of this league phase.
There is no need to worry in November or December, even if they wished they had started their respective seasons better. But they will qualify, and I can assure you that come March, they will be in the quarterfinals.
Kirkland: Madrid. They’re 24th in the table right now, with six points from five games. And in those five games, they’ve really played well for only 45 minutes, in the second half against Borussia Dortmund, thanks to an inspired Vinícius Júnior. It’s not a good look for the European champions. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they lost at underrated Atalanta on matchday six, and then they’ll be relying on getting results against Salzburg and Brest — which, OK, they’ll probably get — to progress.
And remember, Madrid never, ever failed to qualify from the group stage in the old format.
What is going wrong at PSG?
Marcotti: Multiple things. But let’s start with manager Luis Enrique. The man is a genius, but you can only push this whole “being different” thing so far. And just because you’re a genius and a free spirit/free thinker doesn’t mean you’re going to be successful.
You’re supposed to be all about tactics and movement and then you go away to Bayern and play a front two of Ousmane Dembélé and Bradley Barcola in some weird 4-4-2 that you’ve hardly played this season? Really? Oh, and I know Gigio Donnarumma isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but Matvei Safonov? How’d that work out for you?
The club’s transfer policy hasn’t helped. You spend all that money to sign Randal Kolo Muani and then he never starts. Milan Skriniar gets the huge free agent contract and they’ve been trying to shift him ever since he arrived. I think all those people who thought that once the circus left town (Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi, Neymar … all distractions, but all could play) suddenly the “youth project” would take off. But it’s not that easy. And let’s pump the brakes on that “youth” excuse: just four of the starting XI against Bayern were 23 or younger.
Laurens: First of all, they have had a tough draw and from the start it looked like it could be tough for them. And it has been. Why? Because they have not been clinical enough in both boxes: mistakes leading to goals and not taking their chances (they have the third-worst shot conversion ratio in the competition so far.)
This team is also a work in progress, and it will take time to make this young squad grow and get somewhere. These youngsters are promising, but there is a lack of experienced and talented stars, too. Paris went too far in the youth direction.
Though Luis Enrique is the right man to build this team up, his errors so far (tactically and in picking players) have cost his team. And finally, when Dembélé is your main guy up front, you are in trouble! The players will learn and will get better but for now, it is a tough watch at times.
Kirkland: They’ve had some bad luck — the defeat to Atletico Madrid on matchday four was inexplicable — and that’s been compounded by some inconsistent finishing. Looking at PSG’s post-Mbappé squad, they lack an elite goal scorer. They created more than enough chances to beat Atletico and PSV Eindhoven at home. And yes, this is a young, unreliable team. Marquinhos is the only player in his 30s, and after that, Fabián Ruiz and Marco Asensio are the senior players at 28.
I like Luis Enrique a lot — he’s a charismatic leader and a great developer of talent — but his teams are often predictable in their playing style (if not their selection!) and lack variety. “I’ve been in the game for over 30 years, and I can’t explain it,” he said after the Atletico loss. He’ll have to find the answers soon.
Inter Milan and Liverpool are coming out as favorites that not everyone expected. What have been the biggest factors for their success?
Marcotti: I’m not sure Arne Slot quite gets the credit he deserves. A new coach with zero new signings (Federico Chiesa has hardly played) replacing a legend in the biggest job he has ever had and sitting top of the table? With arguably three of his most important players out of contract at the end of the season? And while teaching Ryan Gravenberch a totally new position, losing his starting keeper for an extended stretch, changing the formation to 4-2-3-1 and changing the approach to a much more measured one than we saw under his predecessor?
I mean, are we kidding? It’s unbelievable. The analytics nerds will talk about overachievement and regression to the mean … maybe so. But Slot has been unreal. He’s a huge part of their success.
As for Inter, they’re close to a machine. Simone Inzaghi’s work over the past few years has been rewarded, they have a flexibility of approach — possession, counterattacking, pressing, whatever you like, he can get them to do — that no other top club in Europe has. That’s simply good coaching on the training pitch. His insistence on squad rotation and programmed substitutions might cost them a bit in terms of chemistry sometimes, but it ensures his players — especially the older ones — stay fresh. And they have exceptional individuals, from Alessandro Bastoni at the back to Federico Dimarco out wide to Lautaro Martínez up front.
1:25
Burley: No surprise to see Liverpool outplay Real Madrid
Craig Burley says Liverpool’s 2-0 Champions League win over Real Madrid played out as everyone expected.
Laurens: I predicted Liverpool to have a top season last summer so I’m not that surprised by their success. The best thing that happened to them, apart from picking the right man to replace Klopp (once Xabi Alonso turned them down and they decided Ruben Amorim was not for them), was to actually not sign anyone last summer. With the same squad as last season (Chiesa doesn’t count), with the same leaders, the same dressing room harmony and without having to integrate new players and risking upsetting a few egos, Slot was able to just come in and focus on the pitch while changing a few things from what Klopp had built.
For Inter, stability is also key. They have a great identity under a great coach in Inzaghi, with a very specific style in a 3-5-2 formation. They have a nice squad depth which enables the manager to rotate and change as he likes (and he likes it a lot!). Despite a disappointing European campaign last season (round-of-16 exit against Atletico), they are the finalists from two years ago and started the season with great momentum after winning the Serie A title last campaign.
Kirkland: Looking at the stats for both sides, their goals conceded are eye-catching. Inter haven’t conceded a single goal in five games! And Liverpool have only conceded one! Neither are the competition’s top scorers — five teams have scored more than Liverpool, and 27 teams have more goals than Inter — but when you’re building on a solid foundation, you won’t go too far wrong in Europe.
With three rounds left, who are your top eight seeds?
Marcotti: Liverpool and Inter should be fine. Beyond that, I genuinely don’t know. It’s a real cluster. I mean, Celtic are in 20th place and they could be top eight next week. Thank you, Swiss model!
I imagine Barcelona and Arsenal will be OK. Bayern have a pretty easy run. Atalanta look good, but they have an angry Real Madrid and Barcelona away to deal with (Sturm Graz in between). Two of Borussia Dortmund’s last three games are manageable (the other is Barca), but never underestimate their capacity for self-destruction. City have a tough run, but at least they control their own destiny. Maybe they’ll be the eighth team.
Laurens: Liverpool, Inter, Barcelona, Atalanta, Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen are currently in the top eight and will stay there. The other two should be Bayern Munich and Aston Villa, who have winnable remaining matches. But there are still nine points up for grabs and a lot can change. Goal difference could play a big part to separate some of the teams with the same number of points.
Kirkland: I’d be confident about the top three, the tournament’s outstanding teams so far: Liverpool, Inter and Barcelona. After that, I’m not convinced by Dortmund. I think Atalanta will beat Madrid next month, so they’ll have a real chance. Arsenal are getting better and better, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they win their three games against Monaco, Dinamo Zagreb and Girona. Bayern will join them. As for the last two teams: who knows! Atletico Madrid are improving, too, and might just make it, although that will depend on their game with Leverkusen on matchday seven.