England are effectively guaranteed to be seeded in the draw for World Cup qualifying after it was confirmed a combination of UEFA Nations League (UNL) performance and FIFA World Ranking would be used.
UEFA had requested special dispensation to use final positions in the latest edition of the UNL, which begins on Thursday, to avoid a calendar clash for countries which make the quarterfinals of the expanded format. Every other confederation uses only World Ranking throughout its qualifying programme.
Had UNL performance alone been used, England would have faced being in Pot 2 for the draw after being relegated to League B under Gareth Southgate.
That would have meant the possibility of being paired with another of European football’s heavyweights, with only the 12 group winners qualifying directly to the finals in the United States, Mexico and Canada in 2026 The 12 runners-up are joined by four teams from the UNL in playoff paths for the remaining four places.
However, FIFA confirmed on Tuesday in a circular to national associations that Pot 1 of the World Cup qualifying draw will contain the top eight countries from UNL League A — those who finish first and second irrespective of World Ranking — plus the top four countries by World Ranking.
France, Spain, England and Belgium are the leading European nations and, as it stands, would be sure of being in Pot 1 in the qualifying draw. Even if England were to drop out of the top four, it would require all four teams above them failing to finish in the top two of their UNL group for England to be in Pot 2.
The expanded UNL format means dates are required in the calendar for the League A group winners and runners-up to play home-and-away quarterfinals in March 2025, and so must be drawn into smaller groups.
The World Cup draw will look very different too, as the UNL quarterfinalists will appear as winner / loser pairings to keep the June 2025 dates free for the UNL finals. It means the final composition of the World Cup groups will not be known when qualifying begins in March, as eight groups will have an either/or for the Pot 1 representative where a UNL quarterfinalist has been drawn.
All other World Cup qualifying pots will be based on World Ranking, save for any changes needed for teams playing promotion and relegation matches in the UNL.
The new method gives hope to several countries who ordinarily would have no chance of being seeded in the World Cup qualifying draw, but could now be elevated into Pot 1 with a successful League A campaign.
Netherlands, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark and Austria complete the current UEFA top 12 in the World Cup. These countries will hope to finish in the top two but could earn a Pot 1 place if they are third or fourth by taking one of the three remaining places for best FIFA Ranking alongside England.
But Poland, Hungary, Serbia, Scotland (Pot 2 on World Ranking) and Israel (Pot 4) will participate in League A in this UNL edition and now have added incentive to perform well. If they can finish in the top two of their group, they will unexpectedly be a top seed in the World Cup qualifying draw.
The date of the draw has not yet been confirmed, but FIFA has said that final allocation of pots will be confirmed after the completion of the UNL group phase on Nov. 19. There will be 12 groups of four or five nations, playing fixtures from March to November next year with the playoffs taking place in March 2026.