Guardian writers’ predicted position: 2nd (NB: this is not necessarily Jamie Jackson’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)
Last season’s position: 1st
Prospects
Like a wager on rain blighting the English summer, predicting that Manchester City will (again) retain the title has become a near-gimme of an exercise, as sure a sure thing as can be. The common sense answer, then, regarding whether last season’s four-peat can become an even more remarkable five-peat is “yes” because, despite the mental and physical resilience required, the notion that Pep Guardiola’s blue winning machine can emerge from the slog of mid-winter “being there” in contention, as the manager says, for another expertly timed run-in is a logic City’s supremacy has created.
The caveat, though, is how last season they failed to repeat the grandeur of their magnificent best when, say, claiming the treble of the previous campaign. They had to seal the championship in the final match. Which they did, not for the first time. And there is a discernible end-of-days feel about this Guardiola iteration, as Kevin De Bruyne (33), Kyle Walker (34) age, Ederson and Bernardo Silva potentially leave, and the manager enters the final 12 months of his deal still to choose whether these will be his last at the club.
Yet when De Bruyne went down injured for the first half of last term Phil Foden’s response was to score 19 times in the league and claim both footballer of the year awards, as he came of age at last. For reasons of competition as well as quality, Guardiola likes to freshen up his group so signing (thus far) only the wide player Savinho from sister club Troyes (after a loan at another CFG side, Girona) for about £30m is an oddity. But the window is yet to close and City have a penchant for smart recruitment late in the summer. With Julián Álvarez joining Atlético Madrid in a deal worth up to £81.5m, they may need to.
The manager
Despite an array of garlanded A-list talents, Guardiola is the main man, the principal reason why opposition teams would rather not line up against City. This aura holds his own players in thrall, too, moving them, as the Catalan likes to say, still to run through walls eight years into a glittering tenure. The 53-year-old’s mantra is that the moment he sees them no longer doing so is the moment he walks away. Guardiola has also spoken of his love for the drug of the game, the adrenaline-infused jeopardy of win, lose or draw that draws him back to the dugout. If this fades, then this, as well, will end one of the all-time great managers’ supremely successful match with the east Manchester club.
Off-field picture
The 100-plus charges City face for alleged financial wrongdoing hang heavily because, while they are all denied, if enough are found to be true then the achievements of Guardiola and his team and by previous managers going back to 2009-10 – when the charges date from – will be questioned or worse. Seventeen months have passed since the charges against them became public and, at last, the case is to be heard some time in the autumn. The manager and his squad would have to be automatons for the imminent proceedings not to invade their thoughts so could this affect City’s early form and, given the league’s ever increasing competition, affect the tilt at one more crown?
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Breakout star
Guardiola has an affection for wide players (for example, last summer’s recruit in the department was Jérémy Doku and three years ago Jack Grealish joined for a British record £100m), making the signing of the speedy 20-year-old Savinho no surprise. In a fledgling career at Atlético Mineiro, PSV and Girona, the Brazilian has been an incisive, tricky dribbler, a nightmare for defenders when one-on-one. Savinho can operate on the left or right, though he prefers the latter, and chose City’s No 26 jersey because it was previously worn by Riyad Mahrez, the Algerian who is his hero and who friends tell him he resembles as a player, despite Savinho being quicker and more direct.
The A-lister
Whether Foden can light the side up again as he did last season is an obvious question, but this observer is more intrigued to see how Guardiola accommodates the lad from Stockport and De Bruyne should the latter stay fit. Asked about this, the manager says it is a long season and “we are going to need Phil and Kevin”. True, but will he, perhaps, tweak his system to field them as twin No 10s in front of Rodri or decide it is one or the other? The regulation choice would be Guardiola’s familiar 4-1-1-3-1 shape with De Bruyne in front of Rodri and behind Foden. We will find out what the master tactician decides.
What they did this summer
Grealish is the £100m wide man Gareth Southgate refused to take to Euro 2024 in what the player said can be fuel for this season in City colours. As an integral part of the treble team and a starter (and finisher) in the triumphant European Super Cup and Fifa Club World Cup-winning teams the winger’s is no tale of City woe. Yet the recent declaration of “heartbreak” at being left out of the Euros, how this was his most difficult moment as a professional, was revealing and good news for Guardiola and the team, because a peak-form Grealish would be a boon.